:Product: 19970403RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Apr 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 093 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 03 APR 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  02/2100Z
TO 03/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. A LONG DURATION C1 X-RAY EVENT
AT 03/1327Z OCCURRED  WHICH WAS NOT OPTICALLY CORRELATED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
M-CLASS EVENTS FROM REGION 8026.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 02/2100Z TO 03/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN MOSTLY QUIET WITH AN ISOLATED PERIOD
OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS FROM 03/0300-0600Z. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRONS REACHED HIGH LEVELS DURING THE PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE THE FIRST TWO DAYS OF THE
FORECAST WITH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE LAST DAY. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED IN RESPONSE TO THE CME OBSERVED ON 01 APRIL.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 04 APR-06 APR
CLASS M    20/15/15
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           03 APR 079
PREDICTED   04 APR-06 APR  079/079/078
90 DAY MEAN        03 APR 074
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 02 APR  009/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 03 APR  010/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 04 APR-06 APR  025/015-025/015-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 04 APR-06 APR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                50/50/15
MINOR STORM           25/25/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    10/10/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                60/60/15
MINOR STORM           25/25/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    10/10/05