:Product: 19970404RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Apr 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 094 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 04 APR 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  03/2100Z
TO 04/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
M-CLASS EVENTS FROM REGION 8026 (S23W25).
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 03/2100Z TO 04/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ISOLATED
ACTIVE CONDITIONS AROUND 04/0300Z. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRONS
WERE IN THE MODERATE TO HIGH RANGE.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE THE FIRST DAY OF THE FORECAST AND
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR THE FOLLOWING TWO DAYS OF THE PERIOD. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS A RESULT OF THE CME OBSERVED ON 01 APRIL.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 05 APR-07 APR
CLASS M    15/10/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           04 APR 079
PREDICTED   05 APR-07 APR  079/078/078
90 DAY MEAN        04 APR 074
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 03 APR  009/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 04 APR  020/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 05 APR-07 APR  020/010-010/010-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 05 APR-07 APR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/15/15
MINOR STORM           15/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                40/20/20
MINOR STORM           15/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01