:Product: 19970405RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Apr 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 095 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 05 APR 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  04/2100Z
TO 05/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH AN ISOLATED CHANCE FOR M-CLASS EVENTS
FROM REGION 8026 (S24W40).
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 04/2100Z TO 05/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ISOLATED
ACTIVE CONDITIONS. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRONS WERE IN THE
MODERATE TO HIGH RANGE.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ISOLATED PERIODS OF ACTIVE
CONDITIONS ON DAY ONE OF THE FORECAST.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 06 APR-08 APR
CLASS M    05/05/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           05 APR 080
PREDICTED   06 APR-08 APR  078/078/076
90 DAY MEAN        05 APR 074
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 04 APR  015/012
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 05 APR  010/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 06 APR-08 APR  010/008-010/008-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 06 APR-08 APR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/10
MINOR STORM           10/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/15
MINOR STORM           15/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/02/02