:Product: 19970406RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Apr 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 096 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 06 APR 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  05/2100Z
TO 06/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL
B-CLASS EVENTS FROM REGION 8027 (S28E24).
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF M-CLASS EVENTS
FROM REGION 8026 (S23W52).
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 05/2100Z TO 06/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ISOLATED
ACTIVE CONDITIONS. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRONS WERE IN THE
MODERATE TO HIGH RANGE.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ISOLATED PERIODS OF
ACTIVE CONDITIONS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 07 APR-09 APR
CLASS M    05/05/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           06 APR 078
PREDICTED   07 APR-09 APR  078/077/076
90 DAY MEAN        06 APR 074
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 05 APR  011/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 06 APR  010/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 07 APR-09 APR  010/010-010/010-010/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 07 APR-09 APR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/10/05
MINOR STORM           10/05/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/15/10
MINOR STORM           10/05/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/01/01