:Product: 19970407RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Apr 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 097 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 07 APR 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  06/2100Z
TO 07/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. AT 07/1407Z REGION 8027
(S28E12), A SLOWLY DECAYING CRO SPOT GROUP, PRODUCED A C6/3N TEN
FLARE WITH AN ASSOCIATED TYPE II AND TYPE IV SWEEP, A SMALL
DISAPPEARING FILAMENT AND CORONAL LOOP SYSTEM. THIS REGION ALSO
PRODUCED A SMALL DISAPPEARING FILAMENT WITH AN ASSOCIATED TYPE II
SWEEP AT 07/1344Z. THIS REGION WAS THE ONLY SPOT GROUP ON THE
VISIBLE DISK.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW. REGION 8027 IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
OCCASIONAL C-CLASS FLARES AND HAS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
M-CLASS FLARING.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 06/2100Z TO 07/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED AT ALL LATITUDES.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD. AN INCREASE IN GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED IN
CONJUNCTION WITH TODAY'S FLARE ACTIVITY BY THE END OF DAY THREE OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 08 APR-10 APR
CLASS M    05/05/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           07 APR 077
PREDICTED   08 APR-10 APR  076/076/076
90 DAY MEAN        07 APR 074
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 06 APR  011/011
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 07 APR  009/009
PREDICTED AFR/AP 08 APR-10 APR  010/010-010/010-005/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 08 APR-10 APR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/05
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01