:Product: 19970408RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Apr 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 098 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 08 APR 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  07/2100Z
TO 08/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 8027 (S28E00)
REMAINED QUIET AND STABLE. THE SLOW DECAY OF THIS REGION HAS
APPARENTLY STABILIZED. NEW REGION 8028 (S07W50), AN AXX SPOT GROUP,
WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW. REGION 8027 STILL HAS A CHANCE FOR C-CLASS ACTIVITY AND
A DIMINSHED CHANCE OF ISOLATED M-CLASS ACTIVITY. REGION 8028 IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY ACTIVE AT THIS TIME.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 07/2100Z TO 08/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE
FIELD IS EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE INCREASING ACTIVITY BY THE END OF
DAY TWO AND BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE BY DAY THREE. HIGH LATITUDE
STATIONS MAY EXPERIENCE ACTIVE TO MINOR STORMING DURING THIS PERIOD.
ACTIVITY WILL BE A RESULT OF THE APPARENT CME ASSOCIATED WITH
YESTERDAY'S C6/3N FLARE. AN INDEPENDENT SOURCE OF SOLAR DATA
INDICATES THAT A SIGNIFICANT CORONAL MASS EJECTION WAS OBSERVED IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE FLARE. THIS DATA CORROLATES WELL WITH REPORTED
TYPE II AND IV SWEEPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FLARE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 09 APR-11 APR
CLASS M    05/05/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           08 APR 076
PREDICTED   09 APR-11 APR  076/076/076
90 DAY MEAN        08 APR 074
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 07 APR  010/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 08 APR  005/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 09 APR-11 APR  010/010-015/020-020/025
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 09 APR-11 APR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/20/25
MINOR STORM           05/10/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/25/30
MINOR STORM           05/15/20
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/05/10