:Product: 19970410RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Apr 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 100 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 10 APR 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  09/2100Z
TO 10/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. ONLY MINOR X-RAY ACTIVITY
WAS NOTED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. A SUB FAINT OPTICAL FLARE WAS
OBSERVED IN REGION 8029 (N24W34). THIS NEW-CYCLE REGION HAS SHOWN
GOOD GROWTH OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND IS NOW A DAO SPOT GROUP. NEW
REGION 8030 (N11W31), AN AXX SPOT GROUP, WAS NUMBERED TODAY. REGION
8027 (S28W27) CONTINUES TO DECAY AND IS NOW A MERE AXX SPOT GROUP.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW. REGION 8029 HAS A FAIR CHANCE OF C-CLASS ACTIVITY AND AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 09/2100Z TO 10/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED AT ALL LATITUDES. A
MINOR INCREASE IN ACTIVITY AT SATELLITE ALTITUDE AND HIGH LATITUDES
BEGAN ABOUT 10/1300Z. SPACE-BASED SENSORS INDICATE INCREASED SOLAR
WIND DENSITY AND VELOCITY BEGAN AT ABOUT 10/1300Z, PROBABLY IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE FORECAST ARRIVAL OF MONDAY'S CME PLASMA CLOUD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT 48 TO 60 HOURS AS A
RESULT OF MONDAY'S CME IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WEAK, BUT FAVORABLY
POSITIONED CORONAL HOLE. THIRD DAY ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH TO MOSTLY UNSETTLED LEVELS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 11 APR-13 APR
CLASS M    05/05/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           10 APR 078
PREDICTED   11 APR-13 APR  078/078/078
90 DAY MEAN        10 APR 074
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 09 APR  006/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 10 APR  008/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 11 APR-13 APR  020/020-020/020-015/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 11 APR-13 APR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/25/25
MINOR STORM           20/20/20
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/25/25
MINOR STORM           20/20/20
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05