:Product: 19970412RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Apr 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 102 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 12 APR 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  11/2100Z
TO 12/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED VERY LOW. A REGION EMERGED AT A
MODERATE PACE NEAR S30W36 AND WAS NUMBERED AS NEW REGION 8031.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN AT A VERY
LOW LEVEL FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. IF GROWTH CONTINUES IN NEW REGION
8031, IT COULD PRODUCE AN ISOLATED C-CLASS FLARE.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 11/2100Z TO 12/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THE PERIOD. AFTER 12/0300Z THE FIELD WAS PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO
UNSETTLED. RECENT SOLAR WIND DATA INDICATE THE MAGNETIC CLOUD HAS
PASSED THE EARTH.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
FORECAST TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. PREVIOUS
FORECASTS OF A CORONAL HOLE RELATED DISTURBANCE DURING THIS PERIOD
ARE NOT WARRANTED BASED UPON RECENT CORONAL HOLE IMAGERY.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 13 APR-15 APR
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           12 APR 076
PREDICTED   13 APR-15 APR  077/078/076
90 DAY MEAN        12 APR 074
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 11 APR  032/038
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 12 APR  011/011
PREDICTED AFR/AP 13 APR-15 APR  008/008-008/008-008/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 13 APR-15 APR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01