:Product: 19970413RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Apr 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 103 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 13 APR 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  12/2100Z
TO 13/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED VERY LOW. REGION 8031 (S30W49)
CONTINUED TO EMERGE AT A MODERATE PACE AND BECAME A SMALL D-CLASS
REGION. THIS REGION PRODUCED A B8/SF AT 13/1846Z.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE VERY LOW TO
LOW FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. REGION 8031 IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
SMALL C-CLASS FLARES AND CONTINUED GROWTH SHOULD INCREASE THE
FREQUENCY OF THOSE SMALL EVENTS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 12/2100Z TO 13/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. SOLAR WIND VELOCITIES
CONTINUED AT AN ELEVATED BUT STEADY LEVEL.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIODS ARE POSSIBLE AS LONG AS A MODERATELY HIGH
SPEED SOLAR WIND IS IN THE EARTH'S VICINITY.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 14 APR-16 APR
CLASS M    05/05/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           13 APR 079
PREDICTED   14 APR-16 APR  081/082/078
90 DAY MEAN        13 APR 074
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 12 APR  009/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 13 APR  006/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 14 APR-16 APR  008/008-008/008-008/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 14 APR-16 APR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/20
MINOR STORM           10/10/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05