:Product: 19970414RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Apr 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 104 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 14 APR 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  13/2100Z
TO 14/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME LOW. AN OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED C1
FLARE OCCURRED AT 14/0842Z. REGION 8031 (S29W62) CONTINUED TO
INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE. THIS REGION IS NOW A SMALL TO MODERATE
SIZE D-CLASS GROUP. A NEW REGION EMERGED NEAR S23E21 AND WAS
NUMBERED AS REGION 8032.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN AT A LOW
LEVEL FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. REGION 8031 IS THE EXPECTED SOURCE OF
LOW LEVEL C-CLASS EVENTS. VERY LOW LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN ON
17 APR AS REGION 8031 CROSSES THE WEST LIMB.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 13/2100Z TO 14/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED. RECENT SOLAR
WIND DATA SHOWED A DECREASING TREND IN SOLAR WIND VELOCITY.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
FORECAST TO BE QUIET TO SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 15 APR-17 APR
CLASS M    10/10/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           14 APR 077
PREDICTED   15 APR-17 APR  078/079/076
90 DAY MEAN        14 APR 074
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 13 APR  007/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 APR  005/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 APR-17 APR  005/008-005/008-005/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 15 APR-17 APR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05