:Product: 19970415RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Apr 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 105 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 15 APR 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  14/2100Z
TO 15/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8032 (S22E06) CONTINUED
TO GROW AND PRODUCED A C1/1N FLARE WITH AN ASSOCIATED TYPE II SWEEP.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW. REGION 8032 IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE OCCASSIONAL C-CLASS
FLARES.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 14/2100Z TO 15/2100Z:
THE GOEMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS AND UNSETTLED ON DAY
THREE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 16 APR-18 APR
CLASS M    10/10/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           15 APR 079
PREDICTED   16 APR-18 APR  080/080/078
90 DAY MEAN        15 APR 074
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 14 APR  005/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 15 APR  003/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 16 APR-18 APR  005/005-005/008-010/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 16 APR-18 APR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/15
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/20
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05