:Product: 19970416RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Apr 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 106 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 16 APR 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  15/2100Z
TO 16/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. TODAY'S ACTIVITY WAS
CHARACTERIZED BY OCCASIONAL SMALL B-CLASS EVENTS. REGION 8032
(S22W08) EXHIBITED SLOW DECLINE DURING THE DAY. REGION 8031 (S30W87)
IS ROTATING OFF THE DISK AND WAS STABLE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 15/2100Z TO 16/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET UNTIL ABOUT 1200UT. SINCE THEN THE
MID-LATITUDE SITES HAVE BEEN MOSTLY UNSETTLED AND THE HIGH LATITUDE
SITES HAVE BEEN UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 17 APR-19 APR
CLASS M    10/10/10
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           16 APR 075
PREDICTED   17 APR-19 APR  073/071/070
90 DAY MEAN        16 APR 074
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 15 APR  002/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 APR  005/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 APR-19 APR  005/008-010/015-005/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 17 APR-19 APR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                05/10/05
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                05/10/05
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01