:Product: 19970417RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Apr 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 107 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 17 APR 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  16/2100Z
TO 17/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 8032 (S23W21)
CONTINUES TO DECAY SLOWLY. NEW REGION 8033 (N29E15) WAS ASSIGNED
TODAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 16/2100Z TO 17/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO MINOR STORM LEVELS, WITH
SOME BRIEF MAJOR STORM INTERVALS AT HIGH LATITUDES. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY OCCURRED BETWEEN 0000Z-0900Z, WITH ACTIVITY LEVELS
DECLINING TO MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED FROM 0900-2100Z. WIND DATA
SUGGEST THAT THE DISTURBANCE WAS DUE TO A TRANSIENT IN THE SOLAR
WIND.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED TOMORROW, BUT WITH A GOOD
POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIODS. QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS
SHOULD PREDOMINATE ON THE SECOND AND THIRD DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 18 APR-20 APR
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           17 APR 072
PREDICTED   18 APR-20 APR  072/072/072
90 DAY MEAN        17 APR 074
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 16 APR  014/012
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 17 APR  017/023
PREDICTED AFR/AP 18 APR-20 APR  010/015-005/010-005/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 18 APR-20 APR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/10/10
MINOR STORM           10/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                40/25/25
MINOR STORM           20/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    10/05/05