:Product: 19970418RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Apr 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 108 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 18 APR 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  17/2100Z
TO 18/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 8032 (S23W34) IS
THE ONLY SPOTTED REGION ON THE DISK AND CONTINUES TO DECAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 17/2100Z TO 18/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. REAL-TIME DATA SHOW
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED SOLAR WIND SPEEDS. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON
FLUX WAS MODERATE TO HIGH.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 19 APR-21 APR
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           18 APR 070
PREDICTED   19 APR-21 APR  072/072/072
90 DAY MEAN        18 APR 074
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 17 APR  023/026
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 18 APR  020/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 19 APR-21 APR  015/010-012/008-012/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 19 APR-21 APR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/20/20
MINOR STORM           10/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/25/25
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01