:Product: 19970419RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Apr 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 109 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 19 APR 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  18/2100Z
TO 19/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. NO FLARES OCCURRED. REGION
8032 (S24W49) HAS DECAYED INTO A SPOTLESS PLAGE AND NEW REGION 8034
(N21W16), A SINGLE SPOT 'AXX' ALPHA GROUP WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 18/2100Z TO 19/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE PAST
24 HOURS, WITH A SINGLE PERIOD OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS RECORDED AT HIGH
LATITUDES DURING THE INTERVAL 19/0600-0900Z. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRON FLUX HAS BEEN MODERATE TO HIGH.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS, WITH AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR ISOLATED PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS ON DAY
THREE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 20 APR-22 APR
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           19 APR 070
PREDICTED   20 APR-22 APR  071/071/071
90 DAY MEAN        19 APR 074
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 18 APR  014/016
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 19 APR  012/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 20 APR-22 APR  010/008-010/010-015/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 20 APR-22 APR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/30
MINOR STORM           05/10/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/30
MINOR STORM           10/10/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01