:Product: 19970420RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Apr 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 110 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 20 APR 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  19/2100Z
TO 20/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. NO FLARES OCCURRED. THE
VISIBLE DISK IS CURRENTLY SPOTLESS.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VERY LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 19/2100Z TO 20/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES FOR THE PAST 24
HOURS. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX HAS BEEN MODERATE TO
HIGH.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS, WITH THE
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS ON  DAYS TWO AND
THREE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 21 APR-23 APR
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           20 APR 070
PREDICTED   21 APR-23 APR  071/071/071
90 DAY MEAN        20 APR 074
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 19 APR  013/013
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 20 APR  007/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 21 APR-23 APR  010/010-012/015-012/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 21 APR-23 APR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/30/35
MINOR STORM           10/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/30/35
MINOR STORM           10/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/05/05