:Product: 19970421RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Apr 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 111 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 21 APR 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  20/2100Z
TO 21/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. NO FLARES OCCURRED AS THE
VISIBLE DISK REMAINED SPOTLESS.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 20/2100Z TO 21/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO ACTIVE FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.
THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX WAS MODERATE TO HIGH.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH THE
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR ISOLATED PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS. ACTIVITY
ON DAYS TWO AND THREE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 22 APR-24 APR
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           21 APR 070
PREDICTED   22 APR-24 APR  071/071/071
90 DAY MEAN        21 APR 074
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 20 APR  006/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 21 APR  011/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 22 APR-24 APR  012/015-012/010-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 22 APR-24 APR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                35/25/20
MINOR STORM           15/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                35/25/20
MINOR STORM           15/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/01