:Product: 19970422RSGA.txt :Issued: 1997 Apr 22 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SDF NUMBER 112 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 22 APR 1997 IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 21/2100Z TO 22/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. NO FLARES OCCURRED. NEW REGION 8035 (N17E64), A SINGLE SPOT 'AXX' ALPHA GROUP WAS NUMBERED TODAY. AN 18 DEGREE DISAPPEARING FILAMENT WAS REPORTED OVERNIGHT FROM APPROXIMATE LOCATION N47E27. IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY LOW. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 21/2100Z TO 22/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO ACTIVE AT MIDDLE LATITUDES AND QUIET TO MINOR STORM AT HIGH LATITUDES FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. TODAY'S ACTIVE AND MINOR STORM CONDITIONS WERE CONFINED TO THE INTERVAL 22/0000-0600Z, MARKING THE END OF A DISTURBANCE THAT BEGAN YESTERDAY AT APPROXIMATELY 21/1200Z. WIND DATA SUGGEST THAT THIS DISTURBANCE WAS DUE TO A TRANSIENT IN THE SOLAR WIND. ACTIVITY FOLLOWING THE END OF THE DISTURBANCE DECREASED TO MOSTLY QUIET FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REPORTING PERIOD. IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS, WITH THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS. III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 23 APR-25 APR CLASS M 01/01/01 CLASS X 01/01/01 PROTON 01/01/01 PCAF GREEN IV. PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX OBSERVED 22 APR 071 PREDICTED 23 APR-25 APR 071/071/072 90 DAY MEAN 22 APR 074 V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES OBSERVED AFR/AP 21 APR 015/016 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 22 APR 015/015 PREDICTED AFR/AP 23 APR-25 APR 010/012-010/010-010/010 VI. GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 23 APR-25 APR A. MIDDLE LATITUDES ACTIVE 25/20/15 MINOR STORM 10/10/05 MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 05/01/01 B. HIGH LATITUDES ACTIVE 25/20/15 MINOR STORM 10/10/05 MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 05/01/01