:Product: 19970424RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Apr 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 114 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 24 APR 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  23/2100Z
TO 24/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED VERY LOW. REGION 8035 (N18E35)
SLOWLY DECAYED THROUGH THE PERIOD. NO FLARE ACTIVITY OCCURRED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 23/2100Z TO 24/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD VARIED FROM QUIET TO MINOR STORM LEVELS. THE
BRIEF DISTURBANCE, EARLY IN THE PERIOD, WAS SEEN AT BOTH MID AND
HIGH LATITUDES. IT WEAKENED THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED UNTIL APRIL 27, WHEN QUIET CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 25 APR-27 APR
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           24 APR 070
PREDICTED   25 APR-27 APR  070/070/071
90 DAY MEAN        24 APR 074
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 23 APR  011/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 24 APR  014/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 25 APR-27 APR  010/008-010/008-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 25 APR-27 APR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/20
MINOR STORM           10/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01