:Product: 19970427RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Apr 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 117 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 27 APR 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  26/2100Z
TO 27/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. THE VISIBLE DISK WAS QUIET
AND STABLE. A SPACE-BASED SENSOR REPORTED A MINOR CORONAL MASS
EJECTION (CME) ASSOCIATED WITH REGION 8036 (S19W49) VERY EARLY IN
THE UNIVERSAL DAY. THIS CME WAS NOT CORRELLATED BY ANY OTHER
GROUND-BASED OR SPACE-BASED SENSORS BUT MAY HAVE OCCURRED IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A B6/SF FLARE REPORTED IN THAT REGION AT 26/2356Z.
REGION 8036 IS A STABLE CRO SPOT GROUP AND IS THE ONLY SPOTTED
REGION ON THE VISIBLE DISK AT THIS TIME.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 26/2100Z TO 27/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES AND AT
GEOSYNCHRONOUS ALTITUDES.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 28 APR-30 APR
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           27 APR 073
PREDICTED   28 APR-30 APR  074/074/074
90 DAY MEAN        27 APR 074
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 26 APR  005/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 27 APR  004/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 28 APR-30 APR  010/008-010/008-010/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 28 APR-30 APR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01