:Product: 19970502RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 May 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 122 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 02 MAY 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  01/2100Z
TO 02/2100Z:  THE DISK CONTINUED SPOTLESS AND SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED
VERY LOW.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE AT A
VERY LOW LEVEL FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 01/2100Z TO 02/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD BEGAN THE PERIOD AT MINOR STORM LEVELS. AFTER
02/0300Z, THE FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS. SOLAR WIND
VELOCITY EXCEEDED 600 KM/S DURING THE PERIOD. ENERGETIC ELECTRON
FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS BECAME HIGH NEAR 02/1630Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE FOR THE EARLY PORTIONS OF 03 MAY
AS THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE SUBSIDES. QUIET TO SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR 04-05 MAY.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 03 MAY-05 MAY
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           02 MAY 072
PREDICTED   03 MAY-05 MAY  072/072/073
90 DAY MEAN        02 MAY 074
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 01 MAY  018/020
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 02 MAY  015/018
PREDICTED AFR/AP 03 MAY-05 MAY  012/012-008/008-005/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 03 MAY-05 MAY
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/10
MINOR STORM           10/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/15
MINOR STORM           10/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01