:Product: 19970503RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 May 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 123 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 03 MAY 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  02/2100Z
TO 03/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED VERY LOW. A SMALL REGION
EMERGED NEAR S26W30 AND WAS NUMBERED AS REGION 8037.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AT VERY LOW LEVELS FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 02/2100Z TO 03/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. SOME HIGH LATITUDE
SITES EXPERIENCED ISOLATED ACTIVE CONDITIONS. SOLAR WIND DATA SHOW A
MODERATELY HIGH VELOCITY, LOW DENSITY STREAM IN THE EARTH'S
VICINITY. THIS STREAM IS ROOTED IN NEGATIVE FIELDS ON THE SUN
IMPLYING THAT THE SOUTHERN CORONAL HOLE IS THE LIKELY SOURCE.
ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT AGAIN REACHED HIGH
LEVELS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED.  ISOLATED ACTIVE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR 04-05 MAY.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 04 MAY-06 MAY
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           03 MAY 071
PREDICTED   04 MAY-06 MAY  072/072/072
90 DAY MEAN        03 MAY 074
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 02 MAY  017/016
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 03 MAY  010/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 04 MAY-06 MAY  008/008-008/008-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 04 MAY-06 MAY
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/10
MINOR STORM           10/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/15/10
MINOR STORM           10/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/01/01