:Product: 19970504RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 May 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 124 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 04 MAY 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  03/2100Z
TO 04/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED VERY LOW. SEVERAL OPTICALLY
UNCORRELATED SMALL B-CLASS FLARES OCCURRED. SMALL REGION 8037
(S26W42) DECAYED. A LARGE, CURRENTLY QUIESCENT, PROMINENCE WAS
VISIBLE NEAR THE EQUATOR AT THE NORTHEAST LIMB.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE AT A
VERY LOW LEVEL FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 03/2100Z TO 04/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED. SOLAR WIND
VELOCITIES DECREASED TO JUST OVER 400 KM/S.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
FORECAST TO BE QUIET TO SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 05 MAY-07 MAY
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           04 MAY 071
PREDICTED   05 MAY-07 MAY  072/072/072
90 DAY MEAN        04 MAY 074
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 03 MAY  010/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 04 MAY  008/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 05 MAY-07 MAY  008/008-005/010-005/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 05 MAY-07 MAY
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01