:Product: 19970505RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 May 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 125 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 05 MAY 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  04/2100Z
TO 05/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. NEW REGION 8038 (N19E71)
ROTATED INTO VIEW TODAY, BUT APPEARS TO BE A VERY STABLE SUNSPOT
GROUP.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 04/2100Z TO 05/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OCCURRED BETWEEN 00-03Z. THE
GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUXES WERE AT HIGH LEVELS DURING THE
DAY.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 06 MAY-08 MAY
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           05 MAY 072
PREDICTED   06 MAY-08 MAY  073/074/075
90 DAY MEAN        05 MAY 074
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 04 MAY  009/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 05 MAY  005/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 06 MAY-08 MAY  005/008-005/010-008/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 06 MAY-08 MAY
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                05/05/15
MINOR STORM           01/01/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/25
MINOR STORM           10/10/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/05