:Product: 19970509RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 May 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 129 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 09 MAY 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  08/2100Z
TO 09/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. NO FLARES OCCURRED. REGION
8038 (N21E20), THE ONLY ACTIVE REGION ON THE VISIBLE DISK, IS
CURRENTLY A STABLE FOUR SPOT 'CSO' BETA GROUP.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 08/2100Z TO 09/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS, EXCEPT
FOR A SINGLE PERIOD OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AT HIGH LATITUDES DURING
THE INTERVAL 09/0600-0900Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 10 MAY-12 MAY
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           09 MAY 072
PREDICTED   10 MAY-12 MAY  073/073/074
90 DAY MEAN        09 MAY 074
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 08 MAY  006/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 09 MAY  005/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 10 MAY-12 MAY  005/010-005/008-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 10 MAY-12 MAY
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/20
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05