:Product: 19970510RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 May 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 130 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 10 MAY 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  09/2100Z
TO 10/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. NO FLARES OCCURRED. REGION
8038 (N21E07) SHOWED SOME GROWTH DURING THE REPORTING PERIOD AND IS
CURRENTLY A TWO SPOT 'HSX' ALPHA GROUP. REGION 8039 (N23W52)
REGAINED IT'S ACTIVE STATUS AS A SINGLE SPOT 'AXX' ALPHA GROUP.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VERY LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 09/2100Z TO 10/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGENTIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET LEVELS AT ALL LATITUDES FOR
THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 11 MAY-13 MAY
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           10 MAY 072
PREDICTED   11 MAY-13 MAY  073/074/074
90 DAY MEAN        10 MAY 074
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 09 MAY  005/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 10 MAY  005/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 11 MAY-13 MAY  005/005-005/005-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 11 MAY-13 MAY
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/20
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05