:Product: 19970511RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 May 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 131 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 11 MAY 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  10/2100Z
TO 11/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. NO FLARES OCCURRED. THE
TWO ACTIVE REGIONS CURRENTLY ON THE VISIBLE DISK, 8038 (N21W06) AND
8039 (N23W65), REMAIN STABLE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO VERY LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 10/2100Z TO 11/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED AT ALL LATITUDES
FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS, WITH AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR ISOLATED PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS ON DAY
THREE DUE TO RECURRENT ACTIVITY.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 12 MAY-14 MAY
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           11 MAY 072
PREDICTED   12 MAY-14 MAY  073/074/074
90 DAY MEAN        11 MAY 074
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 10 MAY  005/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 MAY  008/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 MAY-14 MAY  005/010-010/008-015/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 12 MAY-14 MAY
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/20/25
MINOR STORM           10/10/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/25/30
MINOR STORM           10/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/10