:Product: 19970512RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 May 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 132 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 12 MAY 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  11/2100Z
TO 12/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. AT 12/0455Z, REGION 8038
(N21W19), A STABLE TWO SPOT 'HSX' GROUP, PRODUCED A LONG DURATION
C1/1F FLARE WITH AN ASSOCIATED DARK SURGE ON THE DISK AND TYPE II
AND TYPE IV SWEEPS.  IN ADDITION, SOHO-LASCO INDICATED AN EARTH
DIRECTED CME CONNECTED WITH THIS EVENT. REGION 8038 REMAINS THE ONLY
ACTIVE REGION ON THE VISIBLE DISK.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED C-CLASS EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM
REGION 8038.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 11/2100Z TO 12/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES FOR THE PAST 24
HOURS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS, WITH ACTIVE
CONDITIONS LIKELY ON DAY THREE IN CONJUNCTION WITH TODAY'S FLARE AND
CME EVENTS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 13 MAY-15 MAY
CLASS M    10/10/10
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           12 MAY 072
PREDICTED   13 MAY-15 MAY  073/074/074
90 DAY MEAN        12 MAY 074
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 11 MAY  008/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 12 MAY  004/004
PREDICTED AFR/AP 13 MAY-15 MAY  010/010-015/012-025/025
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 13 MAY-15 MAY
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/40/50
MINOR STORM           10/25/30
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/10/10
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/40/60
MINOR STORM           10/25/30
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/10/10