:Product: 19970513RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 May 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 133 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 13 MAY 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  12/2100Z
TO 13/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 8038 (N20W31) IS
THE ONLY SPOTTED REGION CURRENTLY ON THE DISK. THS REGION HAS GROWN
TO A C-TYPE SUNSPOT GROUP BUT HAS NOT PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY
WITHIN THE PAST DAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW. AN ISOLATED C-CLASS FLARE IS POSSIBLE IN REGION 8038.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 12/2100Z TO 13/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET BECOMING ACTIVE TO STORM BY MAY 15  IN RESPONSE
TO YESTERDAY'S CME EVENT.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 14 MAY-16 MAY
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           13 MAY 074
PREDICTED   14 MAY-16 MAY  074/072/072
90 DAY MEAN        13 MAY 074
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 12 MAY  003/003
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 13 MAY  002/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 14 MAY-16 MAY  015/012-025/025-015/018
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 14 MAY-16 MAY
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/15/15
MINOR STORM           15/40/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    10/25/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/10/25
MINOR STORM           20/40/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    15/30/05