:Product: 19970514RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 May 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 134 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 14 MAY 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  13/2100Z
TO 14/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. ONLY SMALL B-CLASS X-RAY
FLARES OCCURRED AND NO OPTICAL FLARES WERE REPORTED. REGION 8038
(N20W44) REMAINS THE ONLY SUNSPOT GROUP ON THE DISK.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW. AN ISOLATED C-CLASS FLARE IS POSSIBLE IN REGION 8038.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 13/2100Z TO 14/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME ACTIVE WITH POSSIBLE STORM PERIODS ON 15 MAY IN
RESPONSE TO THE CME EVENT DETECTED ON 12 MAY.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 15 MAY-17 MAY
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           14 MAY 074
PREDICTED   15 MAY-17 MAY  072/072/070
90 DAY MEAN        14 MAY 074
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 13 MAY  003/003
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 MAY  005/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 MAY-17 MAY  025/025-015/015-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 15 MAY-17 MAY
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/20/15
MINOR STORM           40/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    30/15/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/25/20
MINOR STORM           40/20/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    40/15/05