:Product: 19970515RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 May 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 135 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 15 MAY 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  14/2100Z
TO 15/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 8038 (N20W58)
REMAINS THE ONLY REGION ON THE SOLAR DISK. THIS REGION IS DECAYING
SLOWLY AND HAS NOT PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY WITHIN THE LAST
DAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO  LOW. AN ISOLATED C-CLASS FLARE MAY OCCUR IN REGION 8038.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 14/2100Z TO 15/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM UNSETTLED TO MAJOR STORM AT MIDDLE
LATITUDES AND UNSETTLED TO SEVERE STORM AT HIGH LATITUDES. THE MOST
DISTURBED PERIODS OCCURRED BETWEEN 15/0900-1500Z. THIS ACTIVITY IS
BELIEVED TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE EARTH-DIRECTED CME EVENT OBSERVED
ON MAY 12.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME QUIET TO UNSETTLED AS TODAY'S DISTURBANCE
SUBSIDES. QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 16 MAY-18 MAY
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           15 MAY 073
PREDICTED   16 MAY-18 MAY  072/070/070
90 DAY MEAN        15 MAY 074
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 14 MAY  006/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 15 MAY  038/055
PREDICTED AFR/AP 16 MAY-18 MAY  015/015-010/005-010/012
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 16 MAY-18 MAY
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/15/10
MINOR STORM           10/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/15/15
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/01/01