:Product: 19970516RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 May 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 136 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 16 MAY 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  15/2100Z
TO 16/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 8038 (N21W70)
CONTINUES TO DECAY SLOWLY. NEW REGION 8040 (N06E56), A SMALL A-TYPE
SUNSPOT GROUP, WAS NUMBERED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 15/2100Z TO 16/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE. THE GREATER THAN 2
MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ALTITUDES WAS MODERATE AFTER
16/1646Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED. ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIODS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE FIRST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 17 MAY-19 MAY
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           16 MAY 072
PREDICTED   17 MAY-19 MAY  072/070/070
90 DAY MEAN        16 MAY 074
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 15 MAY  033/053
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 MAY  012/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 MAY-19 MAY  010/012-010/010-010/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 17 MAY-19 MAY
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/01/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           10/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01