:Product: 19970517RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 May 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 137 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 17 MAY 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  16/2100Z
TO 17/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. NEW REGIONS 8041 (N04E24)
AND 8042 (N25E46) WERE NUMBERED TODAY. THESE REGIONS, ALONG WITH
REGION 8038 (N24W82) AND 8040 (N03E41), ARE SMALL, MAGNETICALLY
SIMPLE, AND QUIET.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VERY LOW FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 16/2100Z TO 17/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED AT MID LATITUDES, AND
QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH A SINGLE PERIOD OF ACTIVE LEVELS AT 17/0600Z
AT HIGH LATITUDES.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 18 MAY-20 MAY
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           17 MAY 073
PREDICTED   18 MAY-20 MAY  074/074/074
90 DAY MEAN        17 MAY 074
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 16 MAY  016/012
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 17 MAY  010/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 18 MAY-20 MAY  010/010-010/010-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 18 MAY-20 MAY
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/15/15
MINOR STORM           10/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/05/01