:Product: 19970518RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 May 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 138 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 18 MAY 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  17/2100Z
TO 18/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. THERE WAS NO SIGNIFICANT
ACTIVITY. REGION 8040 (N06E28) SHOWED DECENT GROWTH OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. REGION 8041 (N06E09) DECAYED. THE VISIBLE DISK REMAINED QUIET
AND STABLE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VERY LOW FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 17/2100Z TO 18/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET WITH ISOLATED PERIODS OF UNSETTLED LEVELS
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 19 MAY-21 MAY
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           18 MAY 074
PREDICTED   19 MAY-21 MAY  074/074/074
90 DAY MEAN        18 MAY 074
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 17 MAY  009/012
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 18 MAY  005/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 19 MAY-21 MAY  010/008-010/008-010/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 19 MAY-21 MAY
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01