:Product: 19970519RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 May 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 139 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 19 MAY 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  18/2100Z
TO 19/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. THERE WAS NO SIGNIFICANT
ACTIVITY. NEW REGIONS 8043 (N28W40), A GROWING BXO SPOT GROUP, AND
8044 (S35E77), AN HAX SPOT JUST COMING ONTO THE VISIBLE DISK, WERE
NUMBERED TODAY. REGION 8040 (N05E13) CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT SLOW
GROWTH.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VERY LOW FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED C-CLASS FLARE ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE FROM REGIONS 8040, 8043 AND 8044 AS THEY CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 18/2100Z TO 19/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 20 MAY-22 MAY
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           19 MAY 074
PREDICTED   20 MAY-22 MAY  074/074/074
90 DAY MEAN        19 MAY 074
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 18 MAY  007/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 19 MAY  004/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 20 MAY-22 MAY  005/008-005/008-005/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 20 MAY-22 MAY
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                05/05/05
MINOR STORM           01/01/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/05
MINOR STORM           05/05/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01