:Product: 19970523RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 May 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 143 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 23 MAY 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  22/2100Z
TO 23/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED VERY LOW. REGION 8040 (N07W40)
DECAYED AND PRODUCED ONLY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS. A SMALL REGION ROTATED
AROUND THE LIMB AND WAS NUMBERED AS NEW REGION 8046 (S26E68). THE
LARGE PROMINENCES ON THE SOUTHEAST LIMB ON 22 MAY FADED SOMETIME
BEFORE 23/1500Z.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE AT VERY
LOW LEVELS FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF
A C-CLASS FLARE FROM DECAYING REGION 8040.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 22/2100Z TO 23/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET. THE DISTURBANCE RELATED TO THE CME
ON 21 MAY HAS NOT MATERIALIZED AT THE TIME INITIALLY EXPECTED.
ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE BELOW EVENT
THRESHOLD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
FORECAST TO BE AT ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS ON 24 MAY AND EARLY
25 MAY. ISOLATED MAJOR STORMING IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS DISTURBANCE.
THE CONFIDENCE THAT THE CME WILL IMPACT THE EARTH IS HIGH DUE TO THE
NATURE OF SPACE OBSERVATIONS OF THE EVENT. HOWEVER, THE TIMING OF
IMPACT IS DIFFICULT TO PREDICT. QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON 26 MAY AFTER THE DISTURBANCE PASSES.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 24 MAY-26 MAY
CLASS M    05/05/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           23 MAY 076
PREDICTED   24 MAY-26 MAY  076/076/076
90 DAY MEAN        23 MAY 074
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 22 MAY  005/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 23 MAY  008/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 24 MAY-26 MAY  025/025-015/010-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 24 MAY-26 MAY
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/10
MINOR STORM           25/15/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    15/10/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/15/10
MINOR STORM           25/20/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    20/15/01