:Product: 19970524RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 May 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 144 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 24 MAY 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  23/2100Z
TO 24/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED VERY LOW. ONLY MINOR B-CLASS
ENHANCEMENTS WERE OBSERVED. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES OCCURRED IN THE
CURRENT DISK REGIONS.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN AT A VERY
LOW LEVEL FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF
A SMALL C-CLASS FLARE FROM DECAYING REGION 8040 (N06W53).
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 23/2100Z TO 24/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD REMAINED QUIET. THE DISTURBANCE RELATED TO THE
CME OF 21 MAY FAILED TO MATERIALIZE AS EXPECTED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD
RANGE FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS FOR 25 MAY. THAT IS THE FINAL DAY
THE CME RELATED DISTURBANCE COULD IMPACT THE EARTH. QUIET TO
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR 26-27 MAY.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 25 MAY-27 MAY
CLASS M    05/05/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           24 MAY 077
PREDICTED   25 MAY-27 MAY  077/076/073
90 DAY MEAN        24 MAY 074
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 23 MAY  004/003
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 24 MAY  007/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 25 MAY-27 MAY  015/020-005/010-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 25 MAY-27 MAY
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/10/10
MINOR STORM           10/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    10/05/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/10/15
MINOR STORM           10/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    10/05/01