:Product: 19970526RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 May 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 146 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 26 MAY 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  25/2100Z
TO 26/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN VERY LOW. OCCASIONAL LOW-LEVEL
B-CLASS FLARES WERE OBSERVED DURING THE PERIOD, AS WERE OCCASIONAL
TYPE III RADIO SWEEPS, BUT THERE WERE NO OBVIOUS SOURCE REGIONS FOR
THESE EVENTS. GROUP 8046 (S27E28) CONTINUES TO BE A BIT MORE ACTIVE
THAN THE OTHER TWO SPOTTED REGIONS ON THE DISK AS IT SHOWED
INTERMITTENT BRIGHTENINGS IN H-ALPHA DURING THE DAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 25/2100Z TO 26/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET FROM 25/2100Z UNTIL 26/1000Z WHEN A
WEAK SUDDEN IMPULSE WAS OBSERVED (THE IMPULSE MEASURED 13 NT IN
BOULDER). FROM 26/1000Z-2100Z ACTIVITY HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY ENHANCED,
RUNNING QUIET TO UNSETTLED AT MIDDLE LATITUDES, AND UNSETTLED TO
SLIGHTLY ACTIVE AT HIGH LATITUDES.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 27 MAY-29 MAY
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           26 MAY 080
PREDICTED   27 MAY-29 MAY  080/080/077
90 DAY MEAN        26 MAY 074
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 25 MAY  008/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 26 MAY  007/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 27 MAY-29 MAY  010/008-010/008-010/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 27 MAY-29 MAY
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                05/10/05
MINOR STORM           01/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                05/10/05
MINOR STORM           01/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01