:Product: 19970531RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 May 31 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 151 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 31 MAY 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  30/2100Z
TO 31/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. A SINGLE B1/SF WITH
ACCOMPANYING 3 DEGREE DSF WAS OBSERVED FROM SPOTLESS REGION 8046
(S26W42) AT 31/1206Z. IN ADDITION, A LARGE 61 DEGREE FILAMENT BEGAN
TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE AT APPROXIMATELY 31/1202Z, AND FINALLY
DISAPPEARING AT APPROXIMATLEY 31/1349Z FROM THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT
(N43, W36 TO W90). OF THE TWO ACTIVE REGIONS CURRENTLY ON THE
VISIBLE DISK, REGION 8047 (N27E19), A 3 SPOT 'CRO' BETA GROUP,
REMAINS STABLE, WHILE 8048 (S29E41), A SIX SPOT 'BXO' BETA, HAS
DISPLAYED GROWTH AND INCREASED ADF AND AFS ACTIVITY SINCE FORMING
YESTERDAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VERY LOW, WITH A COMBINED 40 PERCENT CHANCE FOR A C-CLASS EVENT FROM
REGIONS 8047 AND 8048.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 30/2100Z TO 31/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN MOSTLY QUIET FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS,
WITH ISOLATED PERIODS OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS, WITH CONTINUED
PERIODS OF ISOLATED UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. ACTIVITY ON DAY THREE IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO MOSTLY UNSETTLED WITH THE CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS AS AN INITIAL RESPONSE TO
TODAY'S LARGE DSF EVENT. SUSTAINED PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ON DAY FOUR.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 01 JUN-03 JUN
CLASS M    05/05/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           31 MAY   073
PREDICTED   01 JUN-03 JUN  076/076/076
90 DAY MEAN        31 MAY   074
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 30 MAY  007/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 31 MAY  005/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 01 JUN-03 JUN  005/005-005/005-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 01 JUN-03 JUN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/20
MINOR STORM           05/05/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/25
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/05