:Product: 19970601RSGA.txt :Issued: 1997 Jun 01 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SDF NUMBER 152 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 01 JUN 1997 IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 31/2100Z TO 01/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 8048 (S29E28) PRODUCED TWO B1 X-RAY EVENTS, AS WELL AS TWO UNRELATED SUBFLARES, AND CONTINUES TO SHOW MARKED GROWTH AND STRONG AFS ACTIVITY. THE REGION IS CURRENTLY A 'CRO' BETA GROUP WITH 10-15 SPOTS. REGION 8047 (N26E08), A 3 SPOT 'CRO' GROUP, REMAINS STABLE. IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LOW TO LOW, WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR ISOLATED C-CLASS EVENTS FROM REGION 8048. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 31/2100Z TO 01/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN MOSTLY QUIET WITH ISOLATED PERIODS OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH THE CONTINUED CHANCE FOR ISOLATED PERIODS OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS ON DAY TWO, AND ACTIVE WITH THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED PERIODS OF MINOR STORMING ON DAY THREE, IN RESPONSE TO THE LARGE (61 DEGREE) DSF OBSERVED IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT ON 31 MAY. III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 02 JUN-04 JUN CLASS M 10/10/10 CLASS X 01/01/01 PROTON 01/01/01 PCAF GREEN IV. PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX OBSERVED 01 JUN 077 PREDICTED 02 JUN-04 JUN 077/077/077 90 DAY MEAN 01 JUN 074 V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES OBSERVED AFR/AP 31 MAY 009/009 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 01 JUN 007/005 PREDICTED AFR/AP 02 JUN-04 JUN 005/005-010/010-020/020 VI. GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 02 JUN-04 JUN A. MIDDLE LATITUDES ACTIVE 10/20/60 MINOR STORM 05/10/15 MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 01/05/05 B. HIGH LATITUDES ACTIVE 15/30/60 MINOR STORM 10/10/20 MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 01/05/10