:Product: 19970603RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Jun 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 154 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 03 JUN 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  02/2100Z
TO 03/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 8048 (S28E03) IS
THE ONLY SPOT GROUP NOW VISIBLE. LITTLE OF SIGNIFICANCE OCCURRED
DURING THE PERIOD.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 02/2100Z TO 03/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED. ONE
EPISODE OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS OCCURRED FROM 0600-0900Z, AS A RESULT
OF A SHORT-LIVED SUBSTORM.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE ACTIVE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS DISTURBANCE IS
ANTICIPATED IN RESPONSE TO A DSF/CME ON MAY 31. QUIET TO UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THE LAST TWO DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 04 JUN-06 JUN
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           03 JUN 075
PREDICTED   04 JUN-06 JUN  075/075/075
90 DAY MEAN        03 JUN 074
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 02 JUN  008/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 03 JUN  008/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 04 JUN-06 JUN  020/020-010/008-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 04 JUN-06 JUN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                40/20/10
MINOR STORM           10/05/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                50/25/20
MINOR STORM           10/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/01/01