:Product: 19970610RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Jun 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 161 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 10 JUN 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  09/2100Z
TO 10/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED VERY LOW. ONLY ONE SMALL REGION
WITH A SINGLE SPOT WAS OBSERVED. A LATE REPORT WAS RECEIVED FROM THE
MAUNA LOA CORONAGRAPH REGARDING AN ERUPTIVE PROMINENCE AT NW30-45
FROM 09/2000-2030Z. THIS EVENT WAS ACCOMPANIED BY A MODERATE
DURATION B2 X-RAY ENHANCEMENT. A CORONAL MASS EJECTION WAS PROBABLE
WITH THIS EVENT.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN AT A VERY
LOW LEVEL FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 09/2100Z TO 10/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED. ENERGETIC
ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE BELOW EVENT THRESHOLD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
THE EPL/CME MENTIONED ABOVE IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE EARTH.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 11 JUN-13 JUN
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           10 JUN 072
PREDICTED   11 JUN-13 JUN  073/074/074
90 DAY MEAN        10 JUN 074
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 09 JUN  025/033
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 10 JUN  007/007
PREDICTED AFR/AP 11 JUN-13 JUN  005/008-005/008-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 11 JUN-13 JUN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01