:Product: 19970613RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Jun 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 164 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 13 JUN 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  12/2100Z
TO 13/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED VERY LOW. REGION 8052 (N17E28)
CONTINUED TO EMERGE AT A SLOW PACE. SOME MINOR MIXED POLARITIES WERE
OBSERVED IN THIS REGION.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN VERY LOW
FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. CONTINUED GROWTH AND MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY IN
REGION 8052 COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED C-CLASS EVENT FROM THIS
REGION.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 12/2100Z TO 13/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT
GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT AGAIN REACHED HIGH LEVELS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
FORECAST TO BE PREDOMINANTLY QUIET FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 14 JUN-16 JUN
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           13 JUN 070
PREDICTED   14 JUN-16 JUN  071/072/072
90 DAY MEAN        13 JUN 074
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 12 JUN  008/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 13 JUN  003/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 14 JUN-16 JUN  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 14 JUN-16 JUN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01