:Product: 19970616RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Jun 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 167 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 16 JUN 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  15/2100Z
TO 16/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 8052 (N18W11) HAS
SHOWN SIGNIFICANT FLUX EMERGENCE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, BUT DID NOT
PRODUCE ANY FLARE ACTIVITY. THE GROUP IS CURRENTLY A DRI CLASS
SUNSPOT GROUP WITH AN AREA RANGING SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 50-90
(MILLIONTHS OF A HEMISPHERE) AND SPOT COUNT OF 15-20. THE GROUP'S
DOMINANT MAGNETIC INVERSION LINE RUNS NORTH-SOUTH WITH A FAIRLY
SIMPLE SHAPE. THERE MAY BE SOME MINOR POLARITY MIXING IN THE TRAILER
PART OF THE REGION. A SPECTACULAR LOOKING PROMINENCE WAS VISIBLE OFF
OF THE NORTHWEST LIMB AT ABOUT N35.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW. THERE IS A FAIR CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED C-CLASS EVENT
FROM REGION 8052 OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 15/2100Z TO 16/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS PREDOMINANTLY QUIET.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 17 JUN-19 JUN
CLASS M    05/05/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           16 JUN 072
PREDICTED   17 JUN-19 JUN  072/072/072
90 DAY MEAN        16 JUN 074
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 15 JUN  009/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 JUN  006/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 JUN-19 JUN  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 17 JUN-19 JUN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01