:Product: 19970618RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Jun 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 169 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 18 JUN 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  17/2100Z
TO 18/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. NO FLARES OCCURRED. NEW
REGION 8053 (S27E31), A 4 SPOT 'CRO' BETA, WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
REGION 8052 (N18W39) HAS DECAYED TO A 3-5 SPOT 'BXO' BETA, WHILE
REGION 8050 (N27W73) HAS DROPPED TO A SPOTLESS PLAGE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 17/2100Z TO 18/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES FOR THE PAST 24
HOURS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH ACTIVITY
INCREASING TO QUIET TO UNSETTLED ON DAYS TWO AND THREE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 19 JUN-21 JUN
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           18 JUN 071
PREDICTED   19 JUN-21 JUN  071/071/071
90 DAY MEAN        18 JUN 074
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 17 JUN  006/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 18 JUN  005/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 19 JUN-21 JUN  005/005-008/005-008/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 19 JUN-21 JUN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/20/20
MINOR STORM           05/05/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01