:Product: 19970704RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Jul 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 185 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 04 JUL 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  03/2100Z
TO 04/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. A FIVE-DEGREE FILAMENT
NEAR S28E02 DISAPPEARED BETWEEN 1713-1716Z AND WAS PROBABLY
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK, LONG-DURATION EVENT SIGNATURE SEEN BY THE
GOES X-RAY SENSOR FROM 1717-1738Z.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 03/2100Z TO 04/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS PREDOMINANTLY QUIET. THERE WERE SOME VERY
BRIEF UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE PERIODS AT A FEW HIGH-LATITUDE SITES.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS, AND
SHOULD BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED ON THE THIRD DAY.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 05 JUL-07 JUL
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           04 JUL 070
PREDICTED   05 JUL-07 JUL  070/070/070
90 DAY MEAN        04 JUL 073
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 03 JUL  009/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 04 JUL  007/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 05 JUL-07 JUL  012/010-012/012-007/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 05 JUL-07 JUL
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/15
MINOR STORM           10/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/10
MINOR STORM           15/15/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/01