:Product: 19970709RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Jul 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 190 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 09 JUL 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  08/2100Z
TO 09/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 8060 (N04W09) HAS
GROWN IN SIZE AND INTENSITY SINCE YESTERDAY, AND IS CURRENTLY AN 8
TO 9 SPOT 'BXO' BETA GROUP WITH AN ACTIVE ARCH FILAMENT SYSTEM.
REGION 8059 (S34W61) HAS DECAYED INTO A 3 SPOT 'AXX' ALPHA GROUP.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW. REGION 8059 HAS A 25 PERCENT CHANCE OF PRODUCING A C-CLASS
X-RAY EVENT WHILE CONTINUING IN IT'S CURRENT GROWTH CYCLE.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 08/2100Z TO 09/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE PAST 24
HOURS, WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OCCURRING
DURING THE INTERVAL 09/0000-0900Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS, WITH CONTINUED
PERIODS OF ISOLATED UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 10 JUL-12 JUL
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           09 JUL 070
PREDICTED   10 JUL-12 JUL  070/070/070
90 DAY MEAN        09 JUL 073
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 08 JUL  006/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 09 JUL  009/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 10 JUL-12 JUL  005/008-005/008-005/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 10 JUL-12 JUL
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01