:Product: 19970710RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Jul 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 191 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 10 JUL 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  09/2100Z
TO 10/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. NO FLARES OCCURRED. REGION
8060 (N05W22) CONTINUES AS A STABLE 7 SPOT 'BXO' BETA GROUP, WHILE
REGION 8059 (S32W74) HAS LOST IT'S SPOTS AS IT PREPARES TO ROTATE
OFF THE WEST LIMB.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 09/2100Z TO 10/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE PAST
24 HOURS, WITH AN ISOLATED PERIOD OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS RECORDED AT
HIGH LATITUDES DURING THE INTERVAL 10/0600-0900Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS, WITH THE
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR ISOLATED PERIODS OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 11 JUL-13 JUL
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           10 JUL 069
PREDICTED   11 JUL-13 JUL  070/070/070
90 DAY MEAN        10 JUL 073
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 09 JUL  014/011
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 10 JUL  008/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 11 JUL-13 JUL  005/008-008/008-008/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 11 JUL-13 JUL
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01