:Product: 19970715RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Jul 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 196 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 15 JUL 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  14/2100Z
TO 15/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. A NINE-DEGREE FILAMENT
NEAR N15W12 DISAPPEARED BETWEEN 15/0511-1227Z. THE VISIBLE DISK IS
CURRENTLY SPOTLESS.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 14/2100Z TO 15/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO ACTIVE THE PAST 24 HOURS.
LIMITED OBSERVATIONS OF INTERPLANETARY BZ SHOW A STRONG MAGNETIC
FIELD CONSISTENT WITH A SLOW TRANSIENT FEATURE.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED THE FIRST AND THIRD DAY OF THE
FORECAST WITH PREDOMINATLY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THE SECOND DAY OF
THE PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 16 JUL-18 JUL
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           15 JUL 069
PREDICTED   16 JUL-18 JUL  069/069/070
90 DAY MEAN        15 JUL 072
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 14 JUL  002/003
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 15 JUL  010/011
PREDICTED AFR/AP 16 JUL-18 JUL  005/008-008/012-005/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 16 JUL-18 JUL
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01