:Product: 19970722RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1997 Jul 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 203 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 22 JUL 1997
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  21/2100Z
TO 22/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN VERY LOW FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.
NEW REGION 8064 (N22E70) ROTATED OVER THE EAST LIMB. A SMALL
FILAMENT DISAPPEARED BETWEEN 22/1850-1900 FROM N32W05.  A SPOT MAY
BE REFORMING IN PLAGE REGION 8062 (N23E00). SURGING WAS REPORTED
NEAR SW28 EARLY IN THE UT DAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 21/2100Z TO 22/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT QUIET LEVELS AT MIDDLE AND LOW LATITUDES
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS AT HIGH LATITUDES.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 23 JUL-25 JUL
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           22 JUL 072
PREDICTED   23 JUL-25 JUL  072/072/072
90 DAY MEAN        22 JUL 072
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 21 JUL  007/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 22 JUL  005/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 23 JUL-25 JUL  005/008-005/012-005/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 23 JUL-25 JUL
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                05/10/05
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                05/15/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01